Seven million euros and a contract running until 2031: VfB Stuttgart's commitment to Jeremy Arevalo was unambiguous on paper. Yet four months after the 21-year-old forward arrived from Racing Santander in Spain's second tier, he has accumulated just 30 minutes of Bundesliga action across six appearances, contributed a single assist, and was excluded from the club's Europa League registration entirely. The gap between the investment and the return so far is stark — and it raises legitimate questions about timing, planning, and whether a young forward can absorb the demands of one of Europe's most competitive environments without a proper runway.
A Signing Born of Necessity, Not Strategy
The context surrounding Arevalo's arrival matters as much as the signing itself. VfB entered the winter window under pressure. Nick Woltemade's departure to Newcastle United for a reported £75 million had left Sebastian Hoeneß without a natural central forward, and the solutions already in place were imperfect. Badredine Bouanani, signed in the summer for €15 million, had not delivered the cutting edge required. Tiago Tomas and Timo Baumgartl were being used in positions that stretched their natural profiles. Bilal El Khannouss, who has since proven his worth and been signed permanently, was absent on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations. Ermedin Demirović, who had been producing at a reliable rate, was sidelined by a complex foot injury that delayed his return to the first week of January.
VfB's first choice to address the gap was Hyeon-gyu Oh from KRC Genk. The South Korean failed his medical on the final day of the window. Arevalo, already on the club's radar, became the viable alternative. The release clause of €7 million was activated quickly. This was reactive recruitment — not the kind that tends to produce immediate results.
What the Numbers Actually Reveal
Thirty minutes across six Bundesliga appearances is not simply a slow start — it is, statistically, barely a presence. Arevalo has also been absent from four consecutive matchday squads during a stretch when Hoeneß reduced his role to reserve duty in the third tier. His one substantive outing for the second side, a 3-1 victory over SV Waldhof Mannheim, offered genuine encouragement: a goal and an assist from a player clearly comfortable when given space and rhythm. That performance demonstrated the qualities that made him an attractive prospect — direct running, sharp movement in behind, and a capacity to affect the final third. It also demonstrated, by contrast, how differently an established Bundesliga environment operates.
The Europa League omission was particularly telling. Squad registration decisions are deliberate. When a club excludes a newly signed forward from its continental list weeks after a significant outlay, it signals that the coaching staff does not yet regard him as ready to contribute at that level. Hoeneß was candid about the reasoning: "Jeremy comes from a different league, a different culture. We had naturally hoped things would go a bit faster."
The Integration Question — and What It Actually Demands
Moving from Spain's second division to the Bundesliga is not simply a step up in quality. It involves an entirely different physical vocabulary. The pace of pressing, the intensity of defensive organisation, the spatial demands placed on forwards in the German system — these require adaptation that cannot be compressed into weeks. Stuttgart, to their credit, have attempted to accelerate the cultural side of his transition: Spanish-speaking squad members including Chema Andres, himself a recent arrival from Real Madrid, have been specifically tasked with easing Arevalo into his new environment.
Sporting director Fabian Wohlgemuth has maintained public confidence, describing the club's belief in Arevalo's "potential" and pointing to the 2031 contract as evidence of long-term commitment. That framing is both honest and deliberately forward-looking. Stuttgart are not expecting an immediate return; they are making a developmental bet. The risk is that developmental bets made under recruitment pressure — when the primary goal was to fill an urgent gap — carry a different burden than those made with full preparation and scouting certainty.
What the Coming Weeks Will Determine
Arevalo's personal situation adds a secondary layer of urgency. As a three-time Ecuador international with an eye on his country's World Cup squad, he needs competitive minutes at club level. Ecuador and Germany are drawn in the same group, meaning some of his Stuttgart colleagues could be his direct opponents in the tournament — a sharp irony given how little shared competitive ground they have covered so far. Ecuador head coach Sebastian Beccacece gave Arevalo two late cameos during the recent international break, a signal that faith in him at international level has not evaporated.
The weeks between now and the summer break represent a genuine crossroads. Demirović's return to fitness has reduced the urgency of Arevalo's role, and Stuttgart's broader attacking depth — assembled at considerable expense across two windows — means competition for positions is genuine. Whether Hoeneß grants him a sustained run of opportunities before the season concludes will determine not only his own trajectory, but also whether VfB's winter outlay was premature or simply ahead of its time. Patience is easier to sustain when a long contract exists. It is harder to justify when a World Cup clock is running simultaneously.